GS--China: Three things in China

应用介绍

Three quick highlights from China:
n High trade surplus, low inflation: China’s trade surplus reached $99bn in June,
marking a historical high. While some of it may be temporary - for instance,
imports tend to be more sensitive to the number of working days in a month and
this June only had 19 working days (vs. 21 in last June), the message is
unmistakable: China’s big manufacturing bet is working in the near term. In sharp
contrast, CPI inflation slid to 0.2% yoy and PPI inflation remained negative in
June. The ongoing theme of “strong exports and weak domestic demand”
continues to echo in the latest macro data.
n Credit data suggest household deleveraging: China’s June money and credit
data missed expectations, with both bank new loans and government bond
issuance slowing. The stock of total social financing (TSF) grew 8.1% yoy, vs.
9.5% in December 2023, and the stock of M2 grew 6.2% yoy, vs. 9.7% in
December 2023. Net new bank lending to households fell in Q2 for both
short-term and medium-to-long term loans, a sign of broad-based consumer
deleveraging. Combined with still depressed NBS consumer confidence index,
the latest data do not bode well for consumption trends.