GS--China: SAFE data suggest strong FX inflows in September
应用介绍
Bottom line:
Our preferred FX flow measure shows strong FX inflows of US$64bn in September
2024, vs. US$9bn inflows in August. The current account channel showed solid
inflows in September, and the portfolio investment channel showed net FX inflows
mainly via the Stock Connect channel. The FX conversion ratio jumped in September
with FX inflows via forward transactions, indicating increased FX settlement and
hedging by exporters amid sharp CNY appreciation.
Main points:
1. In September, we saw US$35bn in net inflows via onshore outright spot
transactions, and US$23bn inflows via freshly entered and canceled forward
transactions. Another SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” showed inflows
of US6bn in the month, suggesting net receipts of RMB from offshore to onshore.
Our preferred FX flow measure therefore suggests US$64bn net FX inflows in
September, in comparison with US$9bn net FX inflows in August (Exhibit 1).
2. The current account channel showed strong net inflows (US$45bn in September
vs. US$10bn inflows in August). We saw a net inflow of US$65bn related to goods
trade in September vs. an inflow of US$37bn in August. Goods trade surplus FX
conversion ratio jumped to 80% in September, well above the average ratio (45%) in
2019-21 (Exhibit 2). The FX outflows related to services trade deficit narrowed to
US$15bn in September vs. US$20bn in August. The income and transfers account
showed outflows of US$5bn in September, slower than the US$7bn outflows in
August.
3. The portfolio investment channel saw net FX inflows in September (US$10bn in
September vs. US$0.3bn in August). Bond Connect flows showed US$18bn
outflows vs. US$9bn inflows in August. Taken together with cross-border RMB
inflows in September, this implies sizeable inflows into the onshore equity market.
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