ANZ-- Research Greater China Insight 9 July 2024
应用介绍
China: a development-oriented Third Plenum
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At China’s Third Plenum, we will pay attention to any policy measure
that can incentivise local officials, a fundamental issue dragging the
economic momentum.
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Comprehensive reforms require a coherent direction among policy areas
– from fiscal, housing and financial to industrial development. The Third
Plenum is an opportunity to overcome piecemeal measures.
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A slew of recent policy measures signal an overhaul of the monetary
policy framework. The market will look out for any change in policy
wording related to interest rate and currency.
Politburo’s spoiler
The Communist Party of China runs a political cycle of five years. Within
each cycle, there are seven plenary sessions for central committee
members. In the past, they elected a new party leader every two terms.
Therefore, China used to experience a major political reshuffle every 10
years (see our Party Congress primer).
At the Third Plenum in 2013, President Xi Jinping stated his plan on
“comprehensively deepening reform”. Since then, he has chaired a central
committee at the Party level to achieve the same. In March 2021, the Party
launched the ‘14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development’ and
‘Vision 2035’, stating that China will push for “high-quality development”.
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