BCA--Is The Fed Asleep At The Wheel… Again?
The good news is that we should not fear an imminent US recession.• In the absence of recession though, the Fed cannot cut rates as aggressivelyas is priced if it wants to keep inflation and inflation expectations anchored at2 percent.
应用介绍
The good news is that we should not fear an imminent US recession.
• In the absence of recession though, the Fed cannot cut rates as aggressively
as is priced if it wants to keep inflation and inflation expectations anchored at
2 percent.
• Stay short the Feb 2025 Fed funds future until it reaches a price target of 95.5.
• And stay short 2-year T-notes, both absolutely and relative to European 2-year
government bonds.
• Stay long USD/GBP.
• For stock markets, the real risk is not a profits recession. The real risk is a
valuation recession. This supports two of my high conviction stock market
views on a cyclical (6-12 month) and longer horizon:
• Overweight undervalued small caps (Russell 2000) versus overvalued mega
cap tech (Nasdaq).
• And overweight the undervalued non-US versus the overvalued US.
• Tactically short gold
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