BofA_US Viewpoint September CPI FAQ- expected report should create scope for dip buying_20241009
0.3% CPI = more bark than biteWhile knee-jerk the market may initially bear flatten with a MoM core 0.3% CPI print, we
应用介绍
0.3% CPI = more bark than bite
While knee-jerk the market may initially bear flatten with a MoM core 0.3% CPI print, we
think it may be short lived. The pass-through implications for PCE and Fed path should
be limited. Based on our component forecast for CPI in September and assumptions for
trend like inflation for PPI components of PCE, we currently project core PCE inflation at
0.18% m/m. A print in line with what we expect implies a 3m rolling PCE reading that is
relatively consistent with the trend observed in recent months, near the Fed’s 2% target.
This, in our view, should encourage market pricing for a 25bps cut in November. We
think it would require a core MoM PCE readthrough >=0.3% for market to price closer to
50% probability for no cut in November.
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