GD--US ELECTION: MEXICO - BEYOND US ELECTION BLUES, USMCA CLOUDS LOOM
◼ No matter Trump or Harris, USMCA uncertainty + a post-AMLO hangover will weigh on Mexico’s sluggish GDP ahead of the mid-2026 USMCA review◼ Three overlapping hot-button issues – the border, China and trade – will dominate
应用介绍
◼ No matter Trump or Harris, USMCA uncertainty + a post-AMLO hangover will weigh on
Mexico’s sluggish GDP ahead of the mid-2026 USMCA review
◼ Three overlapping hot-button issues – the border, China and trade – will dominate
bilateral ties; Trump 2.0 = more fiscal erosion
◼ With Mexico’s nearshoring potential capped by ‘own goals’, US onshoring +
AI/robotics plays will see additional impetus in 2025 . . .
◼ . . . though longer term, Mexico still reaps nearshoring gains in our base case
◼ We see upside surprise potential for MXN/USD in select scenarios; but broader
market/macro stresses (e.g., ratings downgrades, energy/water conflicts, military
action) if full Trump 2.0 additions prevail
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