GS--USA: FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate By 50bp; Median Dot Shows 50bp More Cuts This Year and 100bp ...
应用介绍
BOTTOM LINE: The FOMC lowered the target range for the fed funds rate by 50bp
to 4.75-5.00% at its September meeting. The post-meeting statement was updated
to say that the FOMC was “strongly committed to supporting maximum
employment” alongside the 2% inflation target and that the risks to the Committee’s
dual-mandate goals were “roughly in balance.” The median dot in the Summary of
Economic Projections showed 50bp more cuts in 2024 to a fed funds rate of
4.375%, 100bp of cuts in 2025 to 3.375%, and 50bp of cuts in 2026 to 2.875%,
which is the median participant’s estimate of the neutral rate. Assuming that
participants’ projections are in the same order across the projection horizon implies
that 12 out of 19 participants projected 5 or 6 cuts next year. The projections also
showed a higher unemployment rate path and a somewhat lower core inflation path
in 2024-2026. Governor Bowman dissented against the decision to cut the fed funds
rate by 50bp, preferring a 25bp cut instead.
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