GS--AEJ Week Ahead: China credit, trade and inflation。。

应用介绍

Scheduled key data releases for the coming week in Asia ex-Japan include China
credit, trade and inflation data, Singapore GDP, Taiwan exports and India CPI. Next
week also features central bank meetings in South Korea and Malaysia. Below we
summarize our forecasts and expectations for these releases. (We also include a
preview of China June activity and Q2 GDP data which will be released on July 15.)
China
n June inflation (July 10): We expect the headline CPI to edge down to 0.2% yoy
(-0.4% month-over-month annualized) in June, vs. 0.3% yoy (0.8%
month-over-month annualized) in May. Food deflation likely narrowed slightly in
June – pork prices registered double-digit year-over-year growth in June, but the
prices of fresh vegetables stayed well below levels a year ago. Non-food CPI
inflation likely edged down in June, on lower services output prices indicated by
PMI surveys. We expect PPI inflation to be -0.9% yoy in June, up from -1.4% yoy
in May, mainly due to a lower base last year. Our forecast implies
month-over-month annualized PPI inflation of 0.3% vs. 3.0% in May.
n June trade (July 12): We expect year-over-year export growth to moderate
slightly in June while import growth to improve modestly. Korea reported weaker
exports and imports in June, including its trade with China. Fewer working days
in June this year (19) compared with last year (21) will also weigh on import
growth from a year ago. That said, Caixin manufacturing PMI and its new export
orders sub-index remained solid over the past two months. Favorable base
effects in June would boost year-over-year trade growth as well. We expect
export growth to be 7.0% yoy in June (vs. 7.6% yoy in May), and import growth
to be 2.0% yoy in June (vs. 1.8% yoy in May). Our forecast implies that nominal
exports would fall by 2.9% in June on a month-over-month non-annualized basis
vs. +2.4% in May, and nominal imports would decline by 1.3% in June (vs.
-2.2% in May). The implied trade surplus would be US$85.1bn in June.