When politics trump data
Market HighlightsMarkets seems to be increasingly pricing in the prospects of a Trump Presidency after
应用介绍
Market Highlights
Markets seems to be increasingly pricing in the prospects of a Trump Presidency after
the 1
st US Presidential debate, potentially building in the inflationary consequences of
policies such as immigration and tariffs, while ignoring weak US data. US nominal
yields have risen to 4.45% from below 4.3% before the debate, market-based
expectations of inflation have risen with 10-year breakevens rising to 2.32%, while the
US Dollar was stronger with low-yielders such as JPY and CHF underperforming. The
impact to equity risk sentiment has been more mixed, but from a micro-perspective
perceived beneficiaries of a Trump presidency such as prison and energy stocks have
done well, while renewables such as solar stocks have understandably lagged.
To be clear, there continue to be many crosswinds affecting markets, and the US ISM
Manufacturing numbers overnight pointed to continued softening in some parts of the
US economy with the headline rate surprising to the downside at 48.5 from 48.7,
coupled with weaker employment trends with the employment sub-index falling to 49.3.
Inflation pressures may also have eased further with the ISM Manufacturing prices
paid component moderating further to 52.1 from 57.0 previously. Looking forward,
markets will focus today on the US job openings data, together with developments in
the French Elections, where the deadline for 2
nd candidate selection is coming up.
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