GS--US Daily: July Payrolls Preview (Walker/Rindels)
应用介绍
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We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 165k in July, below consensus of +175k
and the three-month average of +177k. We estimate private payrolls increased
125k (vs. consensus +148k). While an influx of labor supply at the start of
summer typically leads to an acceleration in seasonally-adjusted job growth
when the labor market is tight, alternative measures of job growth indicate a
pace of job creation below the recent payrolls trend, and we assume a 15k drag
from Hurricane Beryl.
n We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%—in line with
consensus. We see two-sided risks to our forecast. While continued, albeit
slowing, above-trend immigration could apply further upward pressure on the
unemployment rate, catch-up of household employment toward nonfarm payrolls
after a period of underperformance (even after adjusting for the household
survey’s undercounting of immigration) would argue for downward pressure.
n We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, which
would lower the year-over-year rate by two tenths to 3.7%—in line with
consensus and last month’s increase. This month’s calendar configuration should
weigh on average hourly earnings, but the impact of Hurricane Beryl could boost
them, as reported hours typically fall more sharply than earnings during severe
weather events.
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