海外研报

GD--US ELECTION: MEXICO - BEYOND US ELECTION BLUES, USMCA CLOUDS LOOM

◼ No matter Trump or Harris, USMCA uncertainty + a post-AMLO hangover will weigh on Mexico’s sluggish GDP ahead of the mid-2026 USMCA review◼ Three overlapping hot-button issues – the border, China and trade – will dominate

FX--About the relationship between oil prices, inflation and rate expectations

About the relationship between oil prices, inflation and interest rate expectations //New Zealand central bank is stepping up the pace // PLN, CZK, HUF: Signs ofrecovery // Not much new from the Mexican inflation data?

GS--Aerospace & Defense_ 3Q24 earnings preview

Our 3Q24 A&D earnings preview provides our current thoughts on each sub-marketand single stock ideas into the results period. Aerospace OE is challenged by the

BofA Equity Vol Insights - Nervous Vol Still Underprices Election Week

Stressed vol still underprices rare election + FOMC weekUS equity vol has become notably stressed in recent days with geopolitical risks rising and the US election approaching. The VIX trades at a 14-point premium to S&P realized

BofA What Seasonality

S&P 500 defies gravity in the seasonally weakest monthThe S&P 500 gained 2.1% on a total return basis, the best September since 2013 and

BofA_FX Viewpoint FX flows & positioning in Q3_20241009

Market overview: Hedge Fund USD selling vs. EM FXBofA investors ended Q3 slightly long USD, neutral rest of G10 FX, and marginally short

BofA_Liquid Insight ECB- from how fast to how far_20241009

Key takeaways• The ECB seems to have opened the door to back to back cuts. This potentially answers the question of how quickly they cut.

BofA_US Viewpoint September CPI FAQ- expected report should create scope for dip buying_20241009

0.3% CPI = more bark than biteWhile knee-jerk the market may initially bear flatten with a MoM core 0.3% CPI print, we

GS--China Optical Transceivers_ 3Q Preview

Optical Transceiver makers (Innolight, Eoptolink, HG Tech, TFC Optical) in ourcoverage are scheduled to report 3Q results during Oct 22~Oct 24. We expect