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RECESSION APPEARS INEVITABLE BY YEAR- END, UNLESS THE FED CUTS (THEY WILL)

The search is on for indications that the economy is heading towards recession if the Fed fails to act sooner than later – not for indicators of recession itself. The softening data that are rolling
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De-grossing, Positioning Declines, and Rotations...Meaningful in July, But Could be Nearly Over

HF performance / alpha drawdown and de-grossing…are we done yet? July was the first month for negative Eq L/S alpha this year and de-grossing reached fairly extended levels for Eq L/S and Multi-Strats in
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Big GBP unwind in broad risk-off

At present, the G10 FX PIX 2.0 signals that the AUD, NZD and NOK areoversold while the CHF and JPY are overbought. We have temporarily
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BOJ, FED, FUEL SURGE IN EM FX VOLATILITY

Fed and BoJ meetings have further raised EM FX volatility. Last week’s FOMC meeting was widely interpreted as confirming the market expectation that the funds rate will be cut in
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Weekly Warm-up: Defensive Leadership Fully Emerges as Growth Concerns Increase

Macro Risks Rise... While the macro data suggest the consumer is slowing but ok, the jobs data on Friday challenged the soft-landing view for some
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Hong Kong: PMI rose in July

The S&P Global Hong Kong PMI (which covers the manufacturing, construction,wholesale, retail and services sectors) rose to 49.5 in July from 48.2 in June. Among
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Americas Small Cap Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on
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U.S. Desk Strategy Macro2Markets Outlook

As the dust settles post one of the most active macro weeks of the summer, the broader market is at the mercy of lower summer liquidity amid ongoing
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US Week Ahead: August 5 - August 11

08:30 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaksChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will appear on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
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European Week Ahead: August 5 - August 11

08:15 Spanish PMI - Composite, Jul F (consensus 54.7, last 55.8)08:15 Spanish PMI - Services, Jul F (consensus 55.5, last 56.8)
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