海外研报

Week 3: risks of overinvesting in AI overinvestors

Half-time report: 3% beat, guidance improves for large206 S&P 500 companies (46% of index EPS) have reported, beating consensus EPS by

IFAST Corporation Ltd

. iFAST has set a 10-year target to reach S$100bn in assets under administration (AUA) by2028-2030, from S$21.05bn as of end-March 2024. AUA for iFAST has grown at a CAGR of 15%

Asia ex-China: Electronics export demand to remain robust

The divergence between Asia ex-China’s electronics and non-electronicsexport demand will persist through 2024.

Americas Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

FX OutlookYen-maggedon

De-risking of crowded positions is different from amacro shock. There is not much evidence of the latterin recent strong dataflow, and recession models contin-ue to hover in benign territory.

BoJ: why this time is different

We calculate z-scores (using 1990-2019 as our sample) for four key measures ofunderlying inflation: (1) Shunto (wages), (2) core-core CPl adjusted for changes inconsumption taxes, and (3-4) price expectations series from surveys that haveproved to

Global Fixed incomeWeekly

Similarly to USD, front-end HICPxT pricing is broadly in line with our economistsforecasts on the 1y with some slight upside over the coming months. 10y HICPcurrentlytrades slightly cheap compared to our macro model (~10bps). The 5s10sHlCP curve

Tactical Derivatives Strategy

Strategy: We recommend bearish investors overlay their positions with aHSY Aug 30th $185/$175 strike 1x2 Put Spread, indicatively paying 0.8%option premiumvs $193.53 ref price, heading into F2Q'24 carnings(confirmed for August 1). Short

Sharp Pullback But Not There Yet

Equitypositioningisdown butnotlow, Even afterthe sharp drop this weekoverall equitypositioning is still well above average. it is also slightlyabovelevels implied byQ2 earnings growth which looks to be tracking just above10%so farthisseason, leavingroom

US Pulse: Fed may open the door to a rate cut

At the July FOMC meeting we anticipate the committee will acknowledge the recent improvement in inflation and open the door to rate cuts if recent trends