海外研报

Deconstructing the recent rally – and what’s next

Greater confidence in rate cuts? Check. Now: EPS in focusFollowing last week’s inflation data, small caps saw the biggest four-day rally since

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.4%,RTY -0.2%.WTl Obps at $82.85, NatGas +10bps to $2.04, UKNatGas +111bps to £0.7459, Gold +32bps to $2,467, Silver +73bps to $30.52,10Y @4.185%and VIX @ 14.44.

Americas Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

IndiaPulse: Towards more inclusive growth

We forecast USDINR at 82.80 and IGB 10-year bond yields at 6.80% by the end of the fiscal year, together with a shallow RBI rate cut cycle of 50bps starting 1Q2025 (calendar year).

F3Q24 preview: Apple Intelligence and the iPhone replacement cycle

We expect AAPL to deliver an EPS beat in F3Q24E with $85.1 bnof revenue (+4% yoy) and EPS of $1.36 (v. FactSet consensus$1.33).

ECB: A September cut remains on track

The ECB kept rates on hold today, as was universally expected. This decision was unanimous and the Governing Council was also united in not giving an explicit

Global Fixed Income Technical Update

The 5s/30s curve extends the breakout steepening to the 29.5bp Jan 78.6% retrace and 30bp Apr-Jun range measured move objective. Multi-year base

European Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

Global Rates Notes: Sufficient Liquidity, Constrained Capacity

n Treasury repo rates remain broadly anchored, but more sustained pressure sincequarter-end suggests a shift in dynamics. n A range of factors point to pressure arising from constraints on capacity to

Americas Transportation: Eye on Freight: Intermodal Recovery Potential v.3

Bottom line: Post the disappointing JBHT earnings release, we thought it couldbe instructive to take a look at several factors that may be in various stages of