海外研报

Global Economic Weekly Unwarranted panic

Weaker than expected US payrolls last week unleashed a market headwind that peaked this Monday. At peak, the rates market priced 140bp of Fed cuts by year-end, effectively

GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - August 9, 2024

Labor data, recession risk, the Fed, and the path aheadn In the US, David Mericle raised our 12-month recession odds to 25% (from 10%)

CAD: still labouring away

Asia overnightThe NZD has been the marginal outperformer of otherwise largely steady G10 FX

Higher Than Expected Headline IPCA in July, Firmer Core-Services Momentum

Bottom line: The July IPCA printed at 0.38%, slightly above consensus, mostlydriven by higher-than-expected transportation due to rising gasoline prices and airline

GEMs Flow Talk The word is resilience

Leverage: Credit markets held in well and support our view that there is little if any leverage in public credit markets. EM and DM spreads held in surprisingly well and

THE UK ECONOMIC MONITOR

July PAYE employment should gain 30K month-tomonth, while the June jobless rate rises to 4.5%.

Some relief, however the risks still remain

The market began the week with a broad-based risk-off sentiment on Monday, and the continued carry trade unwinding pushed the USD/JPY and USD/CNY

US July CPI preview: Further easing

We expect US core CPI to extend its recent run of favorable prints with a 0.19% m/m gain in July (report released on 14 August). • We see risks as roughly balanced and pertaining to shelter, with

Municipals Weekly Muni rates to ride rogue wave lower

A rogue wave event starts the rigorous phase of rallyThe three-day event of equity and bond market moves post FOMC meeting exhibit all