海外研报

US Strategy: Trading Politics

In November, US voters will decide who controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. With the race a

Tomorrow, back to only thinking "Rate cuts!"

Today, markets are only interested in one economy, one field, and earnings from one company,which may or may not be in a bubble. It makes a change from a focus on “Rate cuts!” I guess. But

The unlikely champions of Europe

Financial markets are trading sideways ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release later today and the US PCE data release later in the week. Sentiment was weighed

The end of the inflation spike

We expect Eurozone headline inflation to decline a bit more in August, to 2.2%. Our take for ex-tobacco is 7bp below what the market prices in.

If the plan is to sell dollar rallies, it isn’t working.

Jay Powell’s focus on labour market data as the biggest driver of rate-hike timing leaves days like today (no jobs numbers, only consumer confidence, house prices and regional fed activity

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

2y UST down move stalled after defending the May 2023 trough near 3.65% but signals of significant upside are not yet visible. 2y

"Wolf! Wolf! The wolf is chasing the sheep!"

 Market pricing of end-2024 Fed Funds fell from 4.66% (67bp below the current level) before the July labour market data were released, to 3.85% just before the (stronger) ISM services data

Fixed Income Special European futures rollover outlook Sep-24/Dec-24

The last trading date for Eurex June futures is 6 September and delivery is on 10 September. The first delivery date for Gilt June futures is 2 September. The rollover will gradually start on 27

Salesforce Inc. (CRM): First Take on F2Q25 Results

Salesforce is indicated up 4% AH as F2Q25 with sub revenue +9% yoy (+10% inCC) vs FactSet consensus’ 8.4%, OM of 33.7% (vs expectations for 32%), cRPO