海外研报

Summer revision courses: Monetary Framework

Like every summer, we are publishing a series of short papers on the ECB’s tools to help you revise during the summer so you can be

On the border, Nietzsche--Global Daily

Market comments“Cruisin' down the center of a two-way street; Wonderin' who is really in the driver's seat

Our Top Stock Picks - North America Research

A Summer of Uncertainty. This summer has been characterized by macro uncertainty with data surprising to both the downside and upside. The market has

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Globally, we expect real GDP growth of 2.7% yoy in 2024, reflecting tailwindsfrom real household income growth, a gradual recovery in manufacturing activity,

July FOMC minutes highlightedlabor market risks

The minutes to the July 30-31 FOMC meeting (which occurred just before therelease ofthe weak Julylaborreport)skewed dovish and showeda committee morefocused on labor market risks than the possibility of a renewed jump in inflationeven if

Global Macro Insight

Data releases over the past month have underscored our expectation that the FOMC will start to reduce policy restriction from September (-25bp).

Indonesia: BI to Focus on IDR Strength in Q3, Sees Room to Cut in Q4

Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%. The deposit and lendingfacility rates were also kept at 5.50% and 7.00%, respectively. Today’s decision was

Global Rates ldeas

Reiterate UST 5Y-2Y flattenerPage 3A rapid repricing of Fed easing expectations has resulted in substantial steepeningbeing priced into the Treasury curve; we think this presents a near-term opportunityto further harvest carry and reiterate our tactical

Positioning across emerging markets following the recent market volatility

Macro focus: The deterioration in market sentiment over the past few weeks caused an aggressive sell-off in risk assets following a recalibration of growth

FOMC – Very dovish minutes open door to 50bps cuts

ImplicationsThe minutes suggest that Powell will take a very dovish tone at the Jackson Hole meeting. There are many dovish references to “almost all” or the “vast majority” of participants. If