海外研报

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

2y UST down move stalled after defending the May 2023 trough near 3.65% but signals of significant upside are not yet visible. 2y

"Wolf! Wolf! The wolf is chasing the sheep!"

Market pricing of end-2024 Fed Funds fell from 4.66% (67bp below the current level) before the July labour market data were released, to 3.85% just before the (stronger) ISM services data

Fixed Income Special European futures rollover outlook Sep-24/Dec-24

The last trading date for Eurex June futures is 6 September and delivery is on 10 September. The first delivery date for Gilt June futures is 2 September. The rollover will gradually start on 27

CHINA ECONOMIC UPDATE

July activity growth weakened further as the manufacturing sectors ‘beloved’ by policymakers cooled off, and ‘unloved’ domestic demand

Cross-Asset Weekly

Investors are eagerly waiting for Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole where he is expectedto give his nod to a first Fed rate cut in September. While he will probably confirm that the

Precious Metals Trading Desk View

This publication was prepared by Bank J Safra Sarasin (BJSS) Trading department. The views or ideas expressed herein are those of the desk and/or the author only. The publication cannot be considered as investment research or a

Post 2Q24: Q224 Retail +18% cFX - Prada robust and Miu Miu acceleratio

H124 Sales +3% ahead of VA Consensus; EBIT 4% ahead:Ongoing outperformance in 2Q24 retail sales +18% (no

Extraordinary Dividend Potential Remains Intact; Upgrade to Overweight

PBR's investment case remains centered on shareholder remuneration, which — for better or worse — is directly tied to

Volatility Review

On Aug $* the VIX saw its largest ever intraday spike, driven by the largemarket sell-off, investor panic, a shift in short-dated volatility positioning, andlow liquidity during the pre-market session.

US MARKET INTELLGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

US: Futs are higher to start the week with small-caps outperforming. Pre-mkt, NVDA (+94bps)is leading both Mag7 and Semis higher as bond yields continue to decline as yield curve bullsteepens. USD is flat and commodities are bid with both Energy and