海外研报

The end of the inflation spike

We expect Eurozone headline inflation to decline a bit more in August, to 2.2%. Our take for ex-tobacco is 7bp below what the market prices in.

If the plan is to sell dollar rallies, it isn’t working.

Jay Powell’s focus on labour market data as the biggest driver of rate-hike timing leaves days like today (no jobs numbers, only consumer confidence, house prices and regional fed activity

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

2y UST down move stalled after defending the May 2023 trough near 3.65% but signals of significant upside are not yet visible. 2y

"Wolf! Wolf! The wolf is chasing the sheep!"

 Market pricing of end-2024 Fed Funds fell from 4.66% (67bp below the current level) before the July labour market data were released, to 3.85% just before the (stronger) ISM services data

Fixed Income Special European futures rollover outlook Sep-24/Dec-24

The last trading date for Eurex June futures is 6 September and delivery is on 10 September. The first delivery date for Gilt June futures is 2 September. The rollover will gradually start on 27

Salesforce Inc. (CRM): First Take on F2Q25 Results

Salesforce is indicated up 4% AH as F2Q25 with sub revenue +9% yoy (+10% inCC) vs FactSet consensus’ 8.4%, OM of 33.7% (vs expectations for 32%), cRPO

USA: Core Durable Goods Orders Roughly in Line With Expectations

BOTTOM LINE: Durable goods orders increased 9.9% in July, above expectationsand reflecting a large increase in new aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

2y UST, 10y UST, 10y Bund, Canada 10y, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/HUF, USD/BRL, Brent

If the plan is to sell dollar rallies, it isn’t working

Jay Powell’s focus on labour market data as the biggest driver of rate-hike timing leaves days like today (no jobs numbers, only consumer confidence, house prices and regional fed activity

Fixed Income Special European futures rollover outlook Sep-24/Dec-24

The last trading date for Eurex June futures is 6 September and delivery is on 10 September. The first delivery date for Gilt June futures is 2 September. The rollover will gradually start on 27