海外研报

More data please, July edition

Monetary Policy | Still waiting for more data: The ECB will keep rates on hold in July. From its perspective, more data is needed to confirm the assumed (and

Quarterly Market Review

The economic momentum of the first quarter of 2024 continued into the second, and the last three months were another positive period for equity markets. Initially, investors aggressively

Summer Break

n GBP: Stay long vs USD. The tactical backdrop looks increasingly friendly for riskand negative for the Dollar with further signs of a benign slowdown in US

Global Economics Wrap-Up: July 12, 2024

Consumer sentiment appears more sensitive to inflation in DMs (whereinflation is rarer) than in EMs, and the effect tends to persist for two yearsafter a surge ends.

EM Equities and US tariff risks: The usual suspects

Company revenue exposures may understate sensitivity...Based on theannual CY2023 revenue breakdown of about 1400 MSCI EM companies, we

Thematic Research

Several key economic indicators are due next week across the major economies, including retail sales in the US, inflation in the UK and Japan, as well as Q2 GDP

Forecast update: Softer macro data call for caution

Growth in the US has moderated further in recent weeks. After a 1.4% annualised rate in Q1, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicates the economy expanded by an annualised 1.5%

Yen has room to rally further if CTAs are stopped out

Could CTAs provide the next push lower for USDJPY?In the moments after Thursday’s US CPI print was released, USDJPY declined more than 2% on suspected FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Heading into this

Rising Demand for Government Bond Funds

Net flows into global equity funds were moderately positive in the week endingJuly 10, though the underlying regional composition was more mixed (+$10bn vs

USD: when good news is bad news

The USD has been able to hold up steady overnight, having already recouped most of the ground initially lost due to the US CPI miss yesterday. Despite being among