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Deconstructing the recent rally – and what’s next

Greater confidence in rate cuts? Check. Now: EPS in focusFollowing last week’s inflation data, small caps saw the biggest four-day rally since
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US MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.4%,RTY -0.2%.WTl Obps at $82.85, NatGas +10bps to $2.04, UKNatGas +111bps to £0.7459, Gold +32bps to $2,467, Silver +73bps to $30.52,10Y @4.185%and VIX @ 14.44.
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Americas Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on
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IndiaPulse: Towards more inclusive growth

We forecast USDINR at 82.80 and IGB 10-year bond yields at 6.80% by the end of the fiscal year, together with a shallow RBI rate cut cycle of 50bps starting 1Q2025 (calendar year).
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ECB: A September cut remains on track

The ECB kept rates on hold today, as was universally expected. This decision was unanimous and the Governing Council was also united in not giving an explicit
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European Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on
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Global Rates Notes: Sufficient Liquidity, Constrained Capacity

n Treasury repo rates remain broadly anchored, but more sustained pressure sincequarter-end suggests a shift in dynamics. n A range of factors point to pressure arising from constraints on capacity to
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Americas Transportation: Eye on Freight: Intermodal Recovery Potential v.3

Bottom line: Post the disappointing JBHT earnings release, we thought it couldbe instructive to take a look at several factors that may be in various stages of
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ECB—Holds Rate and Emphasises Data-Dependence

BOTTOM LINE: The Governing Council left all policy parameters and the formalguidance unchanged, as widely expected. During the press conference, President
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Macro Credit Views: Trust in carry (Karoui)

Carry remains our baseline view. Valuation constraints continue to loom large inmost segments of credit markets, greatly limiting the scope for upside convexity
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