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Endorses Vice President Harris; Democrats’ Odds of Winning the White House Edge Up Slightly

BOTTOM LINE: President Joe Biden exited the 2024 presidential race today (July21) and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris’ prediction market-implied

Argentina: Trade Surplus in June Supported by Weak Imports and a Stronger Harvest (Armella)

Bottom Line: The trade balance recorded a US$1.9bn surplus in June, up from theUS$1.8bn deficit recorded a year ago but weaker than the US$2.6bn surplus in the

Weekly Warm-up: Does TheCycle Matter More Than TheElection Outcome?

Does the Cycle Matter More Than The Election Outcome? Like in 2016.2017, we are more focused on the cadence of the business cycle than on theoutcome of the election, While markets have been digesting the rising oddsof a Trump win, cyclical

Europe Morning Call: Jul 22, 2024

Click “here” for the GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS: Morning Update and a writtensummary of the Europe Morning Call.

Know When to Fold ‘Em?

Former President Trump is no longer the “presumptive” nominee and is now the official nominee. J.D. Vance is his official running mate. While the Republican ticket has been finalized

Curb Your Enthusiasm

At $6.56 trillion, assets under management (AUM) in US money market funds(MMFs) hit another record high last week. Inflows to MMFs have continued even asmarket pricing of policy easing has moved higher -today, the market-

Global Rates Trader Policy Path Dependent

While US election risk is an inescapable focus in rates market discussions, the lastmonth has revealed the difficulty building clear momentum in trading the eventualoutcome.

The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on UK Equity

The US presidential election is re-shaping the Europeanequity market. While markets have just started to fadeEuropean political risk,

Likely to Sell 30% of CrownRock to Ecopetrol

In an 8-K filing today, OXY disclosed that it is in discussions with Ecopetrol to sell 30% ofCrownRock for $3.6 billion. This equates to 30% of OXY's acquisition consideration for

Weekend Cross-Asset Dislocations (20-Jul-2024)

remains lower than we would expect in the context of the economic environmentand options prices show that investors are not overly concerned about a