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Cycle Playbook – Preparing for a Peak

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
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THE PERKINS RULE REVISITED

I’ve had a lot of questions about the Perkins rule, the idea that it is a CONTRACTION INEMPLOYMENT that signals recession, not a gradual drift higher in the jobless rate (the
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“Vast majority” of FOMC looking for September cut

A number of data releases will be on the docket, highlighted by PCE inflation for July. Also on tap are personal income & spending, Q224 GDP
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Global FX Trader Counting Down to Cuts

USD: Cut but don’t run. The time for cuts has come, and FX markets clearlysee that as a time to short the Dollar. It is understandable because the Dollar
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Europe Weekly Kickstart Summer data-only update

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,
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Daily and weekly indicators for the US economy

What are daily and weekly indicators telling us about the US economy?Daily data:
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U.S. Desk Strategy CB Views: Jackson Hole Recap

With the clock ticking, the time has come for Fed cuts Powell said “The time has come for policy to adjust” (towards lower rates)…
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BoJ downplaying structural deflationary pressures of excess corporate savings

The BoJ is constructing its inflation forecasts mainly on upward pressure on wages from labour shortages due to the aging of the
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Further advancement in South Asia and stronger FX contributed to a 1% gain in MXAPJ

MXAPJ gained 1%, led by Thailand and Philippines (+3%),while Taiwan, Korea and China-A (-1%) underperformed.
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Venture Vision: Back to Neverland?

On the cusp of US rate cuts, according to our Economists, anticipation is high that venture/growth markets will step in to
海外研报