海外研报
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FX OutlookYen-maggedon
De-risking of crowded positions is different from amacro shock. There is not much evidence of the latterin recent strong dataflow, and recession models contin-ue to hover in benign territory.
海外研报
2024年07月30日
BoJ: why this time is different
We calculate z-scores (using 1990-2019 as our sample) for four key measures ofunderlying inflation: (1) Shunto (wages), (2) core-core CPl adjusted for changes inconsumption taxes, and (3-4) price expectations series from surveys that haveproved to
海外研报
2024年07月30日
Tactical Derivatives Strategy
Strategy: We recommend bearish investors overlay their positions with aHSY Aug 30th $185/$175 strike 1x2 Put Spread, indicatively paying 0.8%option premiumvs $193.53 ref price, heading into F2Q'24 carnings(confirmed for August 1). Short
海外研报
2024年07月30日
Sharp Pullback But Not There Yet
Equitypositioningisdown butnotlow, Even afterthe sharp drop this weekoverall equitypositioning is still well above average. it is also slightlyabovelevels implied byQ2 earnings growth which looks to be tracking just above10%so farthisseason, leavingroom
海外研报
2024年07月30日
US Pulse: Fed may open the door to a rate cut
At the July FOMC meeting we anticipate the committee will acknowledge the recent improvement in inflation and open the door to rate cuts if recent trends
海外研报
2024年07月30日
China’s Third Plenum provides little support to metals
Last week’s key Communist Party meeting failed to lay out morepolicies to prop up demand for metals and we expect copper and
海外研报
2024年07月30日
The Long-term StrategistAre annuities a good retirement investment?
We diseussed last month how the move from defined-benefit to defined-contribution pension saving shifted market and longevity risk to workers,who have become quite coneerned they may outlive their savings.But not all is lost as workers can buy lifetime
海外研报
2024年07月30日
Global equities lost 0.9%; Japan underperformed
Macro data this weekUS: The JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISMmanufacturing index on Thursday, and the employment
海外研报
2024年07月30日
European Contextual Diary The Week Ahead
Anheuser-Busch InBev (Buy, PT €72) to report H1 2024 Results on 1 AugustWe forecast +2.9% Q2 organic revenue (-0.6% volume and +3.5% price/mix) vs Visible
海外研报
2024年07月30日
US Treasury August QRA preview
We expect the Treasury to keep coupon auction sizes stable at the August quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) on 31 July. The refunding coupon sizes
海外研报
2024年07月30日
