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THE PERKINS RULE REVISITED

I’ve had a lot of questions about the Perkins rule, the idea that it is a CONTRACTION INEMPLOYMENT that signals recession, not a gradual drift higher in the jobless rate (the
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Cycle Playbook – Preparing for a Peak

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
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Five Stocks in Focus: CCJ, CLMT, CNQ, VLO and COP

In this brief note, we highlight five stocks that are top of mind for investors as weposition for the day ahead. We highlight (1) improved sentiment on Cameco on the
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Americas Transportation: Railroads: Weekly Rail Carload Snapshot — Week 34

Total traffic results for US Class I rails under coverage imply carload growth nat +9.4% YoY in week 34, an acceleration versus +6.9% YoY in week 33.
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Asia-Pacific Inflation Monitor: Uptick in July

This publication summarizes regional and economy-specific inflation data across nthe Asia-Pacific economies we cover. The latest data points are for July 2024 in
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Food for Thought: Potential Catalysts to Watch

SPX forward volatility term structure illustrates how equitymarkets are keeping eyes on the Fed, jobs and inflation as a
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Global Economics Weekly Key Global Data

A summary of forthcoming data releases and market-moving
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Bits & pieces

UnDebtfeatable - The indications are strong that regardless of who wins the US election additional deficits and debt are coming down the pipeline – it’s out of control and can’t be
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Basis Trade Growth Is Massive

(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- Leveraged net shorts of Treasury futures have surged to a historic $1.1trillion in notional value, accelerating 38% in the past four months. While the record short position
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AUD mid-year update: bullish but China & positioning cap upside

AUD: rates tailwind… We continue to see the AUD gradually higher over the next few quarters (year-end ’24 forecast: 0.69/ year-end ’25: 0.72) but near-term upside is likely to be capped by the
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