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European Contextual Diary The Week Ahead

In this note we preview the coming week's corporate events Below we highlight three key events for next week. Please see this excel for a full list of
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USA: July Housing Starts Fall Sharply in the South

BOTTOM LINE: Housing starts dropped by 6.8% in July from a downwardly revisedJune level, well below expectations for a smaller decrease. The decline was led by
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UMichigan Sentiment Above Expectations and Inflation Expectations Unchanged

BOTTOM LINE: The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentimentincreased in the August preliminary report, slightly above consensus expectations
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Still Like Macau Gaming, Though More BB Than B

The shifting macro dialogue once again was the main driverof global markets. Recent concerns on US growth were
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Cheatsheet - G10 & EM Week Ahead: Summer in the city

It's a quieter data week for G10, markets focused on catalysts such as Jackson Hole (Aug 22-24). Powell is the main event (Fri),
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Back Up To Moderately Overweight

After the abrupt cut to underweight last week,our measure ofaggregateequity positioning bounced to turn moderately overweight again (z score0.33, 63rd percentilel, but is still well below the mid-July highs at the top ofthe historical band. Discretionary
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G10 Cuts Broaden as Data Stabilize

Activity data since the July NFP release have steadily chipped away at fears that theUS economy is rolling over. Cooperative inflation news solidified an already robust
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Apr-Jun GDP Quick Comment: Domestic Demand Recovery Reaffirmed

2024 reveal that real GDP growth came in at 3.1% SAAR, exceeding both the Bloomberg consensus of 2.3% and our 2.6% prior forecast　(Japan Economics: Apr-Jun
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Signals from the Credit Market for US Growth Risks

We think signals from the corporate credit market are fully consistent with a soft landing.
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The Viewpoint: How Asian Central Banks Will React

The key debate is still US recession risks. Our US economics team continues to expect a soft landing with the Fed only cutting rates to 3.625% by end-2025.
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