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Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

n Revised our Fed policy path expectations to include a string of consecutive 25bpcuts in September, November, and December (vs. quarterly cuts previously) as
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Midday Market Intelligence: seeking

...a levelTuesday’s calm seems to be carrying over on Wednesday, with markets seeming toshed some of the worry seen earlier in the week, while still remaining cautious. A
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No smoking gun

Bottom line• The Q2 labour market data was stronger than our expectation. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.6%, below our forecast of
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Preview: RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

Cooler heads• We expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR at 5.50% next week, andto signal a potential cut in the OCR later this year, with the Record
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Weekly FX summary – 5 August 2024

quo on Wednesday. Mexico and India to stand pat on Thursday. China trade data on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.
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All eyes on equities as we head into data doldrums

The Australian dollar is like an itch I can’t stop scratching. In the first few months of this year, it suffered from a steady downward revision in growth forecasts relative to the US, but in recent
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Robust headline growth with underlying weakness

Indonesia’s 2Q24 real GDP growth printed at 5.05% yoy, a tad higher than our expectation of 5.04% and lower than the 5.1% recorded for 1Q24. While a weak deflator
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How Market Moves Could Affect the Economy and the Fed

Since the July employment report last Friday, the equity market has sold offabout 5% and the 10-year Treasury rate has fallen 21bp. Our financial conditions
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The Pocket Chartroom November 1999 Prospects for a Soft Landing: Hoping for the Best

This Month’s OverviewMain Points 1
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Earnings-day volatility at 14-year highs

We analyzed the earnings day moves of the 362 S&P 500 stocks that havereported so far this earnings season and compared them with the past 18
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