海外研报

Catalysis analysis

Catalysts abound in the week ahead, between key economicdata, Fed/BoE/BoJ decisions, and the all-important (Tech)

BoE Votes 5-4 to Cut Policy Rate; Non-Committal Tone on Path Ahead

BOTTOM LINE: The MPC voted by a majority of 5-4 to lower Bank Rate by 25bp to5.00%, with Bailey, Breeden, and Lombardelli joining Ramsden and Dhingra in voting

Situation Room July FOMC: Yes man

The biggest takeaway from the July FOMC was that chair Powell largely agreed with market pricing for a September cut (Exhibit 1), assuming no big surprises on inflation.

China data preview: a weak start to H2 2024

Slowing industrial production: The production subindexes of both official and Caixin manufacturing PMI slowed in July, signalling a

Japan: government expects BoJ to create steep curve, not rate hikes

The government has clearly indicated that it intends to “shift corporations from excess savings to excess investment, and completely

2Q24 EPS Miss on Margins; Initial 3Q Trendlines Somewhat Muted vs Expectations

Bottom Line: ARCB 2Q24 adjusted EPS of $1.98 was belowGSe/Visible Alpha Consensus estimates of $2.20/$2.08. Results

weighed down by continued weakness in North Asian markets & Global Cyclicals

MXAPJ lost 0.8%, dragged down by Philippines, Taiwan andKorea (-2% each), while Thailand, Australia, and Indonesia

Barclays Equity Factor Monitor

Updated monthly holdings and performance stats for ourequity factor baskets across the US & Europe are presented

Change in Fed call: Three 25bp cuts this year

With this morning's weaker-than-expected labor market report,we now expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25bp three times this

Global Economics Weekly Ready, set... slow

The global economy is showing signs of slowing, withmanufacturing weakening and the US labour market cooling.