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The Global Point Tuesday, 13 August 2024

We project the 2025E memory market to be better than feared. Despite market concerns on potential memory oversupply in 2025E, and following the memory
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GSCHARTOFTHEDAY:CPIPREVIEW

We highlight four key component-level trends we expect to see in this month’s report:
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IndonesiaPulse: Rupiah has had a reprieve, but downside risks remain

We have lowered our USDIDR forecast to 16150 in Q3 (from 16420 previously) and 16050 in Q4 (from 16360 previously) to reflect recent easing depreciatory
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Europe Non Research Other

Prely good session for EM tx wih ZAR emy decent demand for the curency mainly fromSyslamalic accounts but also HFs. As regular readers wll know, l have been trading USDZAR from the short side lately which hasworked well am l am further
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Risk-reward for equities to stay mixed through summer, but Japan not to underperform further

We remain concerned about the backdrop for stocks, there could be further bouts of weakness as we progress through summer. Activity is weakening,
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Europe Non Research Other

Not that much to add to yesterday's piece really, enough to make things murky for markets going forward (recession riskiniddleEastUkraine incursion'US politics) that after the huge deleveraging episode post payrols daspite the swift
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US MARKET INTELLIGENCE:AFTERNOON BRIEFING

SPX +1.7%, NDX +2.5%,RTY +1.6%.WTl -200bps at $78.46, NatGas -114bps to $2.16, UKNatGas -82bps to 0.9594, Gold -26bps to$2,466, Silver -45bps to $27.85, 10Y @ 3.847%, andVIX @ 18.12.
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The Weekly Worldview: Rising Central Bank Action

If life were a Greek tragedy, we would call it foreshadowing. In reality, it was an unfortunate coincidence. The BoJ’s website temporarily went down when the policy
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Weekly Warm-up: Valuations Matter and Defensive Quality Is Still the Best Option

Markets are looking for better growth or more policy support to get excited again. We don't see confirming evidence in either
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Economic Insights

Core CPI inflation likely remained weak in July. We expect an increase of just 0.077% m-o-m, similar to the June reading of 0.065% .
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