海外研报

The Flow Show 100% + 75% = peak 68%

Scores on the Doors: crypto 36.2%, gold 17.6%, oil 14.6%, stocks 13.8%, commodities 7.4%, HY bonds 4.5%, cash 2.9%, US dollar 2.8%, IG bonds 1.3%, govt bonds -3.0% YTD.

Weekly Teller: Initial 2Q takeaways

Initial 2Q reports: Mixed but fine for creditNotwithstanding top and bottom line beats (vs. consensus est.) by each of the fourbanks reporting on Friday, equity reactions were generally weaker on concerns about net

Weekly Theme: Jun oil & gas demand; refined products exports stable MoM

China oil demand down in 1H24 while gas improvedAccording to NBS and China Customs data, in Jun'24, China crude oil apparent demand was 15.7mbd/64mnt, -7% YoY/+2% MoM with the monthly throughput hitting the yearly

Consumption growth contribution lowered notably in 2Q

Consumption growth contribution to GDP declined in 2QGDP growth softened to 4.7% yoy in 2Q, with consumption, investment and net exports

Europe Economic Weekly Back to cuts when back to school

Weekly view: Time to watch cycling and the OlympicsWe end the week feeling more comfortable again that the ECB will deliver a September

Global Economic Weekly Bridging the gaps

Global Letter: Bridging the gapsWith markets now pricing more than two Fed cuts this year, and while acknowledging

Global FX Weekly The weak USD policy

G10. Fed still main USD driver. US election USD impact far from straightforward. Focus on FX tactical opportunities for now.

Weekly spending update through July 13

Key takeaways• Total card spending per HH was down 1.6% y/y in the week ending Jul 13, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data.

China Online Travel Sector

China online travel sector to grow 15-18% in the next 2 years, driven by sharp outbound growth amidst slower domestic growth

China: FX outflows accelerated in June

Our preferred FX flow measure shows larger FX outflows of US$69bn in June 2024,vs. US$32bn outflows in May. The current account channel showed faster outflows