海外研报

Global Rates Trader Front-end tipping point

Stars align for Fed cuts, tailwind for G10 front-end flatteners. Six months agothe US rates market embedded nearly 175bp of cuts for the year and the prospect of

GS DOT budget tracker points to slowing state infrastructure spending plans in 2026+

As part of our GS US Infrastructure toolkit, we conducted our annual update ofall 50 US state transportation budgets, which revealed:

IndiaPulse: Towards more inclusive growth

We forecast USDINR at 82.80 and IGB 10-year bond yields at 6.80% by the end of the fiscal year, together with a shallow RBI rate cut cycle of 50bps starting 1Q2025 (calendar year).

Cross Asset Strategy Spotlight on Inflation

The strong rally in markets during November and December 2023 was attributable to the emergence of the immaculate disinflation thesis. This

ECB: A September cut remains on track

The ECB kept rates on hold today, as was universally expected. This decision was unanimous and the Governing Council was also united in not giving an explicit

Charting the course to higher Gross Margins; Raise PT to NT$1200

We believe that TSMC is now firmly on course to improving GMs in the next few years, with GMs troughing out at 53% in the most recent downcycle and plenty of

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.4%,RTY -0.2%.WTl Obps at $82.85, NatGas +10bps to $2.04, UKNatGas +111bps to £0.7459, Gold +32bps to $2,467, Silver +73bps to $30.52,10Y @4.185%and VIX @ 14.44.

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Globally, we expect real GDP growth of 2.7% yoy in 2024, reflecting tailwindsfrom real household income growth, a gradual recovery in manufacturing activity,

Nomura Quant Insights

Risk of a downside attack on the Nikkei 225 by systematic investorsSemiconductor stocks worldwide took a beating yesterday. It looks as though worries over

Relative value models and analysis

Mean Rvt Rank is based on an autocorrelation statistic on spline spreads over the past month. 100 means the spread is highly mean reverting relative to others, and vice versa.