海外研报

USA: UMichigan Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Edge Down in Preliminary July Report

BOTTOM LINE: The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declinedin the July preliminary report, below consensus expectations for a slight increase.

Weekly IMM FX Positioning

This publication was prepared by Bank J Safra Sarasin (BJSS) Trading department. The views or ideas expressed herein are those of the desk and/or the author only. The publication may not be considered investment research or an

USA: Powell Notes Added Confidence from Second Quarter Inflation Progress

BOTTOM LINE: During an interview at the Economic Club of Washington D.C., FedChair Jerome Powell did not comment on the specific timing of the first rate cut but

Global Macro Commentary

Fed Chair Powell says recent inflation data add confidence; USTs bear-steepen; BoC surveys show inflation expectations

US Economics  |  US Economic Data

Headline retail sales were unchanged in June, but the control group rose +0.9%. This is the biggest m/m increase inthe control group since April 2023. Both numbers were stronger than the respective consensus forecasts of -0.3% and+0.2%.

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Transport Chartbook – thoughts on shipping S/D – Global trade growth remainedstrong in 2Q with air freight up +10% yoy and container +6%. This is driven by a

The economic consequences of a second Trump presidency for emerging markets

Macro focus: With market-implied probabilities of a second Trump term rising, we take a first look at the potential reverberations for EMs. We view tariff policy as

The return of the rest?

In Friday’s CoTD (link here) we showed that before the 2000 bubble burst, the three “dullest” S&P 500 sectors (Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Utilities) had

CitiFX Techs - US yields: Close to a break

Yields are testing support at 4.40% (March 2024 low), after breaking below the 4.55% support (March 27 low). IF we break belowthis level on a weekly basis, we will open up a 2

Doubtful on growth, hopeful on the market

Investors turn more doubtful on the global growth outlookA net 27% of investors expect softening global growth over the coming 12 months, the