海外研报

Americas Small Cap Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

US July jobs report: Broad-based weakening risks steeper cuts

• A sizable deceleration in payrolls and the fourth consecutive increase in the unemployment rate (which triggered the Sahm Rule) point

PANIC STATIONS!

1. Global recession risk, with CBs (perceived to be) behind the curve2. The unwind of the Yen carry trade (did BoJ hawkishness mark the top of

MARKETS CAN TAKE WEEKS TO REBOUND FROM A VOLATILITY SPIKE

Friday’s weak NFP print put recession risks front and centre. However, one disappointing payrolls release is notenough to declare one: (1) 114k new jobs are consistent with economic expansion; (2) cyclical sectors are still

CARRY TRADE HARD LANDING?

Japan’s balance sheet is hugely distorted by the years of excess accommodation. It was always a toss-up as to which fragility was going to break first – maturity or currency mismatch. In the end,

BOJ, FED, FUEL SURGE IN EM FX VOLATILITY

Fed and BoJ meetings have further raised EM FX volatility. Last week’s FOMC meeting was widely interpreted as confirming the market expectation that the funds rate will be cut in

Downgrade Retail to Neutral: 2Q24 Promos Suggest Weakening Demand

We downgrade Retail to Neutral from Positive on erosion ofinventory margin recapture as promos intensify and demand

Global Markets Daily: US HY Is an Imperfect Election Instrument (Rogers)

While the ongoing market correction has taken center stage in recent sessions,the policy implications of the US elections remain a key topic among investors.

Resist The Urge To Buy The Dip

The risk-off mood that dominated markets on Thursday, Friday and the early stages of Monday's trading amiddismal payrolls, tech earnings and manufacturing PMls seems to have dissipated for the time being. Thepositive signal from July's iSM services

Treasury Curve: Own 2 -Year/10-Year Curve Steepeners

According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, Friday's employment report caused financiamarkets to price-in some .