海外研报

Commodities Technical Advantage Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an end

View: Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an endOil prices have been trading in a narrowing range, or a triangle pattern, for over a year

BoJ: why this time is different

We calculate z-scores (using 1990-2019 as our sample) for four key measures ofunderlying inflation: (1) Shunto (wages), (2) core-core CPl adjusted for changes inconsumption taxes, and (3-4) price expectations series from surveys that haveproved to

Sharp Pullback But Not There Yet

Equitypositioningisdown butnotlow, Even afterthe sharp drop this weekoverall equitypositioning is still well above average. it is also slightlyabovelevels implied byQ2 earnings growth which looks to be tracking just above10%so farthisseason, leavingroom

US rates forecast update

The resulting baseline forecast has the 10y UST yield at 4.25% at year-end, withyields across the curve modestly above forwards.The forecastgenerally sees front.end spreads (2s5s) a bit flatter than forwards, reflecting a more gradual pace of

Yen facing cross-currents

The monetary policy convergence story is real - DB changed its Fed call to 3 cuts(previously 1) this year after the CPl print. While the Fed repricing over the comingyearortwo hasn't been huge (eg, 1y1yis still comfortably above thelows

GBP: mind the black hole

The GBP rally – which has come to define the G10 FX market so far this year –has lost momentum of late amidst returning risk aversion. The GBP has been

SALES COMMENTARY ONLY (NOT A PRODUCT OF RESEARCH)

While earnings are off to a strong start – 78% beating an already high “hurdle” and 2Q24 EPS estimates revised higher to +10.2% – mega cap tech results

Global equities lost 0.9%; Japan underperformed

Macro data this weekUS: The JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISMmanufacturing index on Thursday, and the employment

China’s Third Plenum provides little support to metals

Last week’s key Communist Party meeting failed to lay out morepolicies to prop up demand for metals and we expect copper and

FX OutlookYen-maggedon

De-risking of crowded positions is different from amacro shock. There is not much evidence of the latterin recent strong dataflow, and recession models contin-ue to hover in benign territory.