海外研报

G10 Cuts Broaden as Data Stabilize

Activity data since the July NFP release have steadily chipped away at fears that theUS economy is rolling over. Cooperative inflation news solidified an already robust

Apr-Jun GDP Quick Comment: Domestic Demand Recovery Reaffirmed

2024 reveal that real GDP growth came in at 3.1% SAAR, exceeding both the Bloomberg consensus of 2.3% and our 2.6% prior forecast (Japan Economics: Apr-Jun

Signals from the Credit Market for US Growth Risks

We think signals from the corporate credit market are fully consistent with a soft landing.

The Viewpoint: How Asian Central Banks Will React

The key debate is still US recession risks. Our US economics team continues to expect a soft landing with the Fed only cutting rates to 3.625% by end-2025.

On Crude's Tug-Of-War

Bottom Line: A continued softening of oil demand will eventually intensifybearish pressures and pull the floor from beneath oil prices. But we probably arenot there yet..

Japan: April-June Machinery Orders Flat, but Exceed Previously Announced Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: Private sector core machinery orders, a leading indicator for capex,rose +2.1% mom in June, the first increase in three months, and came in above the

The Weekly Worldview: As the Dust Settles

As the dust settles following the market turmoil of the past couple of weeks, we huddled with our economists around the world to review the risks to our baseline

FX Trade Idea-Sell EUR/USD

towards the bottom of its recent trading range in the coming months due to:1. Paring back of some of the market’s dovish Fed expectations for this

HOW LOW IS LOW ENOUGH FOR THE FUNDS RATE?

After scuffling around the starting gate of the rate-cut betting race for more than year, market participants finally heard the bell go off on Friday and know the race is on. There are three tiers

Precious Metals Trading Desk View

This publication was prepared by Bank J Safra Sarasin (BJSS) Trading department. The views or ideas expressed