海外研报

On Our Minds-Consumers help lift 2024 growth estimate, but 2025 outlook has weakened

Recent industrial production and retail sales data point to strong consumptionfueled growth in 2Q24, with a carryover effect leading us to upgrade our 3Q24

US Economics Weekly Risingunemployment is not“transitory'

CITI'S TAKEThe rise in the unemployment rate is the clearest sign yet that rather thanachieving a “soft landing" the US economy is more likely to slide intorecession.Attempts to explain away

There’s No Place Like Home: close-out and home repatriation of Yen-funded positions triggers global

Years of negative policy rates enticed Japanese households, pension plans, state-owned banks and the Bank of Japan itself to create what Deutsche Bank estimates as a $20 trillion carry trade0F

Central Bank Policy Tracker August 2024

Recent policy changes: DM central banks have continued to cut rates, with23.3% (on a GDP-weighted basis) lowering policy rates over the last three

G7 and BIC outlook

Although the labor market has cooled substantially, there is not enough evidence of recession in the near-term.

Labor Market Trumps inflation Right Now (For BondYields)

US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measureremained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fel0.2% m/m.

Loans To China's Real Economy Contracts For First TimeIn Two Decades

Aggregate financing missed expectations, growing CNY 0.8bn to CNY 18.9bn in July on a YTD basis. Newloans grew CNY

Should You Buy The Dip?

e First rate cut: Equities correct after the first rate cut, even if it were to stave off recession.

Mixed 2Q24 results: lower crop yields, but higher rice prices and buybacks

2024 yields revised down as harvesting advancesAdecoagro reported 2Q24 results. Although we believe quarterly earnings for

BofA Securities Equity Client Flow Trends Buying the dip

• Big inflows week: Last week, during which the S&P 500 was essentially flat, BofA Securities clients were net buyers of US equities (+$5.8B) for the first time in five