海外研报

China’s Third Plenum provides little support to metals

Last week’s key Communist Party meeting failed to lay out morepolicies to prop up demand for metals and we expect copper and

FX OutlookYen-maggedon

De-risking of crowded positions is different from amacro shock. There is not much evidence of the latterin recent strong dataflow, and recession models contin-ue to hover in benign territory.

The Pulse of the Market Monitoring Earnings, The Rotation Trade, and The Pullback

In Pulse, we tackle hot topics and updates on our high frequency indicators. The three big things you need to know: First, earnings season has been fine so far, and what we’ve read has

European Contextual Diary The Week Ahead

Anheuser-Busch InBev (Buy, PT €72) to report H1 2024 Results on 1 AugustWe forecast +2.9% Q2 organic revenue (-0.6% volume and +3.5% price/mix) vs Visible

US Daily: Some Encouraging News on Shelter Inflation (Walker)

The latest release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) All Tenant RegressedRent (ATR) Index showed -1.1% annualized rent growth for Q2. Because the ATR

US Treasury August QRA preview

We expect the Treasury to keep coupon auction sizes stable at the August quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) on 31 July. The refunding coupon sizes

US Pulse: Fed may open the door to a rate cut

At the July FOMC meeting we anticipate the committee will acknowledge the recent improvement in inflation and open the door to rate cuts if recent trends

EA GDP: PERIPHERY > CORE; SURVEYS: JOBS AND PRICES COOL

Flash Euro Area (EA) GDP for Q2 confirms the three main trends of the past year: 1) ‘periphery’ outperforms‘core’, with Spain's large upside surprise (0.8% QoQ vs 0.5% expected) and Germany slipping back into contraction

TIME TO TURN ATTENTION TO MANAGING THE FED BALANCE SHEET

The headline coming out of this week’s FOMC meeting will be the signal that funds ratecutting begins in September, with the usual caveats. Probably not reported but still very

Mizuho China Weekly Outlook

China’s high-frequency indicators for July were mixed. On one hand, steel-related activity has eased further, with rebar prices hitting a new low since 2017 (Fig 8) and crude steel production declining at a