海外研报

US growth pick-up but dimmer Europe outlook

US election: Harris steps in, but Trump still more likelyWhile the prediction market-implied odds of Democrats winning the White House

US growth pick-up but dimmer Europe outlook

US election: Harris steps in, but Trump still more likelyWhile the prediction market-implied odds of Democrats winning the White House

Weekend Cross-asset Dislocations (28-Jul-2024)

The July short squeeze has been painful, but the short-squeeze should be short-lived

US Elections & the MexicoChina Bridge vs. Buffer Debate

Chinese investment is a risk to Mexico's nearshoring narrative, not a means to achieve it. Mexico is acting as a China Buffer fending off Asian imports

Still See a Soft Landing

We believe that fears of a hard landing remain overdone. Two weeks ago, Ellen wrote that we continue to see data consistent with a soft landing. This week’s data brought

Still See a Soft Landing

We believe that fears of a hard landing remain overdone. Two weeks ago, Ellen wrote that we continue to see data consistent with a soft landing. This week’s data brought more evidence

2024 US Elections – An Early Guide

With Election Day 334 days away, it's likely much will change re: the drivers of the outcome & their market impact.

July FOMC: one last hold?

The Fed is poised to stand on the sidelines for one more meeting at the July FOMC, as we expect the target range for the Federal funds rate to remain unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. This would mark a full year, or eight

US Weekly Prospects

Fed on track for September easeAgainst this backdrop, the FOMC meets next week, Despite afew high-profile calls for the Fed to start cutting next week,that does not appear to be in the cards. Rather, we look foreasing

FOMC preview

The June FOMC meeting statement described activity as expanding at a “solidpace," job gains “'strong," and unemployment “low." We don't see any of thatchanging. Since the June meeting the unemployment rate has risen another tick to4.1%, in line