海外研报

US Weekly Kickstart

Small-caps just posted the most powerful weekly return vs. large-caps on record. Against a backdrop of extreme equity market concentration, four

USD long-term fair value falters in Q124

The USD saw its long-term fair value fall somewhat across the board in Q124. The drop came on the back of the continuing loss of its real rate &

What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: Trump’s rising presidential odds, Fed cuts may soon begin,

US election: Trump’s rising oddsThe likelihood of a Trump presidency has risen further in betting markets sinceSaturday’s shocking assassination attempt, and we maintain that such an election

Won’t be as easy next time

In a rare display of steadiness, yesterday’s packed calendar went mostly according to expectation, which is a welcome change after the past six weeks. The ECB left

SAUDI KEY TO TRUMP OIL TRADE

Talk of ‘Trump trades’ has become more fashionable than ever since last weekend’s failed assassination attempt on the Republican nominee – but most such talk is inconclusive. The

with Defensives outperforming Info Tech & Internet sectors

MXAPJ declined 3.1%, dragged by Taiwan, China offshore(-5% each) and Hong Kong (-3%), while Philippines (+3%),

2Q24 EPS Review: Banking on a Strong 4Q to Achieve 2024 Guidance

Executive SummaryBottom line: EPS was ahead of expectations owing to lower provision for credit losses (NPAs,NCOs little changed) and lower expenses (lower comp). Net interest income remains pressured

Despite the Heat, the Animal Spirits are Cooling Off

Stormy Spirits Ahead?Our Animal Spirits Index (ASI) fell in June to 0.53 from 0.88 in May but has remained positive in all six months of 2024 (chart). Previous reports detail the index's methodology, but on a basic level, an

Weekly Equity Market Commentary & Conviction Calls

With 2Q earnings season in full swing, the recent rally seen in USequities cooled slightly this week. As evidenced by the

Know When to Fold ‘Em?

Former President Trump is no longer the “presumptive” nominee and is now the official nominee. J.D. Vance is his official running mate. While the Republican ticket has been finalized