海外研报
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"Wolf! Wolf! The wolf is chasing the sheep!"
Market pricing of end-2024 Fed Funds fell from 4.66% (67bp below the current level) before the July labour market data were released, to 3.85% just before the (stronger) ISM services data
海外研报
2024年08月27日
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
2y UST down move stalled after defending the May 2023 trough near 3.65% but signals of significant upside are not yet visible. 2y
海外研报
2024年08月27日
Summer revision courses: Monetary Framework
The ECB’s monetary policy aims at having an influence on credit conditions; put simply, this is how monetary policy functions.
海外研报
2024年08月27日
How Strong Is Job Growth? (Abecasis)
Payroll growth has averaged 170k/month over the last three months. But ninvestors have raised a number of concerns about this seemingly reassuring
海外研报
2024年08月27日
USD undervalued, especially against the JPY
The USD is undervalued on several crosses. USD/JPY’s undervaluation is large enough to trigger a buy trade, but the UK on holiday and no
海外研报
2024年08月27日
POWELL CONFIRMS THE EASING CYCLE HAS BEGUN
The economy is not now in recession, but when recession is not an option and inflation is low enough with the funds rate 250BP > inflation, employment must become the policy focus. The F
海外研报
2024年08月28日
A Fed put doesn’t always mean a USD put
The coming days will see the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, US core PCE data, as well as Nvidia Corporation’s earnings. So investors are
海外研报
2024年08月28日
Critical stress exits ‘Risk off’, proving yet another contrarian buy signal
CSS proves again to be a contrarian buy-signalAs we suspected on 5-Aug-24 (see our CSS Risk off report), the CSS remains a
海外研报
2024年08月28日
Trading Catalysts NVDA earnings, an underpriced risk
At Jackson Hole, Chair Powell sealed the deal for a September rate cut. Although Powellwas undeniably dovish, we don’t think he opened the door for 50bp cuts. Elsewhere, the
海外研报
2024年08月28日
Global Equity Volatility Insights Record VIX drop suggests hedging fall risks
VIX retraces at record pace, but is the coast really clear?Vol markets have rapidly stabilized from 5 Aug’s spike, with the VIX having already
海外研报
2024年08月28日
