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Implied Thoughts Four key takeaways from the latest sell-off

The short-term rates market is still fully pricing in a recession (and risks position unwinds if data doesn’t comply).
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On Our Minds-Consumers help lift 2024 growth estimate, but 2025 outlook has weakened

Recent industrial production and retail sales data point to strong consumptionfueled growth in 2Q24, with a carryover effect leading us to upgrade our 3Q24
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US Economics Weekly Risingunemployment is not“transitory'

CITI'S TAKEThe rise in the unemployment rate is the clearest sign yet that rather thanachieving a “soft landing" the US economy is more likely to slide intorecession.Attempts to explain away
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There’s No Place Like Home: close-out and home repatriation of Yen-funded positions triggers global

Years of negative policy rates enticed Japanese households, pension plans, state-owned banks and the Bank of Japan itself to create what Deutsche Bank estimates as a $20 trillion carry trade0F
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Central Bank Policy Tracker August 2024

Recent policy changes: DM central banks have continued to cut rates, with23.3% (on a GDP-weighted basis) lowering policy rates over the last three
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G7 and BIC outlook

Although the labor market has cooled substantially, there is not enough evidence of recession in the near-term.
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Labor Market Trumps inflation Right Now (For BondYields)

US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measureremained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fel0.2% m/m.
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Loans To China's Real Economy Contracts For First TimeIn Two Decades

Aggregate financing missed expectations, growing CNY 0.8bn to CNY 18.9bn in July on a YTD basis. Newloans grew CNY
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Should You Buy The Dip?

e First rate cut: Equities correct after the first rate cut, even if it were to stave off recession.
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Mixed 2Q24 results: lower crop yields, but higher rice prices and buybacks

2024 yields revised down as harvesting advancesAdecoagro reported 2Q24 results. Although we believe quarterly earnings for
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