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BANK OF ENGLAND TAKES A SMALL LEAP OF FAITH

The MPC has delivered a 25bp reduction that takes Bank Rate to 5% in what is essentially an “insurance” cut.As mentioned in the minutes, “it is now appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of policy restrictiveness" while
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Global Macro Thoughts “Normal service will now resume”

Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including important
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A hike, a hold and a cut

Central banks are in sharp focus this week. The Fed (Wed) has little upside to do anythingmore than hint that a September cut is on track. For the BoJ (Wed), we maintain our out-ofconsensus call for a 25bp
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Which Is More Impressive, The 3Q Revenue Clip Or Zuck’s New 'Drip'?

META continues to execute at arguably the best pace of anycompany in digital advertising, with little revenue deceleration
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Catalysis analysis

Catalysts abound in the week ahead, between key economicdata, Fed/BoE/BoJ decisions, and the all-important (Tech)
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BoE Votes 5-4 to Cut Policy Rate; Non-Committal Tone on Path Ahead

BOTTOM LINE: The MPC voted by a majority of 5-4 to lower Bank Rate by 25bp to5.00%, with Bailey, Breeden, and Lombardelli joining Ramsden and Dhingra in voting
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Situation Room July FOMC: Yes man

The biggest takeaway from the July FOMC was that chair Powell largely agreed with market pricing for a September cut (Exhibit 1), assuming no big surprises on inflation.
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China data preview: a weak start to H2 2024

Slowing industrial production: The production subindexes of both official and Caixin manufacturing PMI slowed in July, signalling a
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Japan: government expects BoJ to create steep curve, not rate hikes

The government has clearly indicated that it intends to “shift corporations from excess savings to excess investment, and completely
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2Q24 EPS Miss on Margins; Initial 3Q Trendlines Somewhat Muted vs Expectations

Bottom Line: ARCB 2Q24 adjusted EPS of $1.98 was belowGSe/Visible Alpha Consensus estimates of $2.20/$2.08. Results
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