海外研报

Emerging Markets mid-year 2024 outlook

Macro focus: At the start of this year, we had expected building drags from aslowing China and the 2021-23 global hiking cycle to pull down the EM complex.Yet, EMs defied expectations in H1 2024, buoyed by the resiliency in the consumer.

FX OutlookYen-maggedon

De-risking of crowded positions is different from amacro shock. There is not much evidence of the latterin recent strong dataflow, and recession models contin-ue to hover in benign territory.