海外研报

TOP OF THE AGENDA

SPX +1.1%, NDX +1.5%,RTY +1.7%.WTl-31bps at $78.40, NatGas +578bps to $2.25, UKNatGas -155bps to£0.7797,Gold -18bps to $2,397,Silver -34bps to $29.13, 10Y @ 4.253%, andVIX @ 14.91.

Mexico: Firm Broad-Based May Sequential Real Activity Expansion (Ramos)

Bottom Line: Real activity recorded a 0.75% mom sa variation in May, firmer thanexpectations for a milder 0.55% mom sa increase and more than offsetting the April

US Elections & the MexicoChina Bridge vs. Buffer Debate

Key TakeawaysChinese investment is a risk to Mexico's nearshoring narrative, not a means to achieve it. Mexico is acting as a China Buffer fending off Asian imports ~75%

Weekly Warm-up: Does TheCycle Matter More Than TheElection Outcome?

Does the Cycle Matter More Than The Election Outcome? Like in 2016.2017, we are more focused on the cadence of the business cycle than on theoutcome of the election, While markets have been digesting the rising oddsof a Trump win, cyclical

The Pulse of the Market Thoughts on Sentiment, Earnings, Rotation, and the US Election

In a NutshellThe big things you need to know: First, investor sentiment has gotten as extreme as it did last August and this past March.

FOMC – Six questions

Two 2024 cuts versus three? Our baseline remains two Fed cuts in H2, one in September and one in Q4. The market is divided on pricing and so are we to some

The Macro Blog - Yen -A better Bank of Japan timing?

Last week's intraday price action in the USD/JPY suggests that the Bank of Japan may have intervened in the FX market onceagain to counteract yen weakness. While it is too early to determine the ultimate impact, the current market conditions

Endorses Vice President Harris; Democrats’ Odds of Winning the White House Edge Up Slightly

BOTTOM LINE: President Joe Biden exited the 2024 presidential race today (July21) and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris’ prediction market-implied

Global Hedge Fund Industry Monthly Update

Green, with a dash of red: Most HF strategies generated positive returns for June.1 Quant Equity was the best performing strategy at 2.6%, followed by Discretionary Macro at 0.8%, then Multi-Strategy at 0.8%.

Yen has room to rally further if CTAs are stopped out

Could CTAs provide the next push lower for USDJPY?In the moments after Thursday’s US CPI print was released, USDJPY declined more than 2% on suspected FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Heading into this