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Tracking Trucker Employment; TL Drivers Exit But More May Be Needed

Long haul trucking lost 1,200 drivers in May, below their pre-COVID seasonalsequential increase of ~2,600 drivers (we note that long haul data lags total
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Another month of soft retail spending

Retail sales probably declined in JuneTotal card spending per household (HH), as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, was down 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) in June. Card spending per HH was
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We Forecast Core PCE at 0.16% After PPI

We now forecast core PCE inflation for June at 0.16% vs. 0.08%M in May. Headline is forecasted at 0.07% vs. -0.01%M the month prior. We expect the Y/Y
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Americas Transportation

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Surprise MET Increase for Uranium in Kazakhstan

New MET Rates from 2025: The Government in Kazakhstan has introduced a new Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) for uranium, replacing the existing 6% flat rate MET
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Slow Boat from China Implications of Soaring Shipping Costs

At the southern tip of Africa, the warm water from the Indian Ocean meets the cool current coming up from the Antarctic, resulting in stormy weather. When first
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2Q Preview: Screening for Dislocations (SLB), Momentum (AR, CCJ), and Catalysts (WFRD)

Heading into 2Q24 and 2H24, we remain focused on stocking picking versusthematic exposures similar to so far this year, and see three key buckets of
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Bank of Korea: preparing for a Q4 pivot

The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% was unanimous, but its forward guidance has turned incrementally more dovish as anticipated.
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Data Preview: Mixed Picture in June,

Data preview: mixed picture again in June, slower Q2 GDP growth momentumFor the upcoming June data release, we expect smaller y/y decline in property sales on alow base,
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Weakened consensus on monetary policy

Participants' agreement about the outlook for monetary policyand the labor market diminished again in the June meeting.
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