海外研报

Can Trump depreciate the USD?

Careful what you wish for, ‘cause you might get it in heapsThe most often asked question we encountered last week was whether a weak USD

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

OVERNIGHT BRIEFUS/EU trade: European Equities closed lower (SXXP -0.3%, $X5E -0.7%) with CAC (-1.2%)underperforming also today, Luxury (-1.4%), China Exposed Consumer (-1.4%) and BasicResources (-1.7%) reflected concerns around China. ECB Bank Lending

Global Asset Allocation Views

The data reaffirm our base case view of moderating growth and cooling inflation.• This environment supports a risk-on tilt in portfolios, with overweights to equity and credit.

China: Uncertain economic environment overshadows the party plenum

China’s GDP growth slowed down to 4.7% in Q2. Growth relies much onfixed asset investment in manufacturing and infrastructure while consumerconfidence remains low and the downturn in the housing market continues.

Global Economics Weekly

Slowing US inflation now makes Fed cuts in both Septemberand December likely. Inflation dynamics are less clear in the UK

Strong Quarter Highlights Future Growth Trajectory

Summary: While 2Q op EPS of $1.69 missed the Street's $1.71 estimate and our $1.76, PPNRbeat on accelerating growth, with all of the miss from higher provision due to outsized loan

Prime Insights & Analytics Prime Services Weekly Report July 5, 2024 Friday 6/28 – Thursday 7/4

The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate2 rose +0.35% between 6/28 and 7/4 (vs MSCI World TR +1.37%), driven by beta of +0.67%

IndiaPulse: Towards more inclusive growth

We forecast USDINR at 82.80 and IGB 10-year bond yields at 6.80% by the end of the fiscal year, together with a shallow RBI rate cut cycle of 50bps starting 1Q2025 (calendar year).