海外研报

FX Positioning Update

At present, the G10 FX PIX 2.0 signals that the GBP, JPY and AUD areoverbought. We have temporarily suspended the model’s trading

GS Economic Indicators Update: Japan Sequential Trimmed Core Inflation Accelerates to 2.1% in June

Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The databehind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found onour living page here.

US small cap rotation triggered by macro, boosted by positioning

Russell 2000 has recently recorded the largest two-weekrally against Nasdaq 100 since 2002 (Exhibit 1). The rotation

Equity Strategy

Q2 reporting season is heating up, Activity was broadly better for the quarter,sequentially, pointing to an improvement in earnings delivery - top chart. This,though, is to a good extent reflected in consensus estimates, where Q2 EPSprojections

Today's Morning Meeting

quity Strategy(Mislav Matejka,CFA)Q2 Preview: Consensus call for the EPS narrowing between the Mag-7 and rest might still be lackingQ2 reporting season is heating up. Activity was broadly better for the quarter, sequentially, pointing to

Europe Mon Research Other

The ECB delivered an uneventful meeting with the message of 'data dependenoe' front and canter, although a later headline of'ECB oficlals consider if only one more cut ls feasible in 2024 was a litle confusing. Biden finaly announced he was

TOP OF THE AGENDA

SPX +1.1%, NDX +1.5%,RTY +1.7%.WTl-31bps at $78.40, NatGas +578bps to $2.25, UKNatGas -155bps to£0.7797,Gold -18bps to $2,397,Silver -34bps to $29.13, 10Y @ 4.253%, andVIX @ 14.91.

Mexico: Firm Broad-Based May Sequential Real Activity Expansion (Ramos)

Bottom Line: Real activity recorded a 0.75% mom sa variation in May, firmer thanexpectations for a milder 0.55% mom sa increase and more than offsetting the April

US Elections & the MexicoChina Bridge vs. Buffer Debate

Key TakeawaysChinese investment is a risk to Mexico's nearshoring narrative, not a means to achieve it. Mexico is acting as a China Buffer fending off Asian imports ~75%

Weekly Warm-up: Does TheCycle Matter More Than TheElection Outcome?

Does the Cycle Matter More Than The Election Outcome? Like in 2016.2017, we are more focused on the cadence of the business cycle than on theoutcome of the election, While markets have been digesting the rising oddsof a Trump win, cyclical