海外研报

Seeking Certainty Amid Change

We expect a range-bound market in near term, as recent rallyhas largely priced in the positive developments since February.Despite positive policy pivots, we caution against persistentdeflation pressure and rising complexity from trade protection

The rotation has yet to reach CCCs

Cuts are unlikely to flatten IG curvesn USD IG spread curves have remained remarkably stable this year. n A transitory downstream flow effect of Fed cuts on front-end spreads is possible

Global Macro Insight 17 July 2024

Door opening to Fed rate cuts, September eyed• The door is opening for the Fed to begin cutting rates soon, which we expect to start in September (25bp). Q2 inflation data indicate disinflation

The rotation has yet to reach CCCs

Cuts are unlikely to flatten IG curvesn USD IG spread curves have remained remarkably stable this year.n A transitory downstream flow effect of Fed cuts on front-end spreads is possible

GS DOT budget tracker points to slowing state infrastructure spending plans in 2026+

As part of our GS US Infrastructure toolkit, we conducted our annual update ofall 50 US state transportation budgets, which revealed:

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.4%,RTY -0.2%.WTl Obps at $82.85, NatGas +10bps to $2.04, UKNatGas +111bps to £0.7459, Gold +32bps to $2,467, Silver +73bps to $30.52,10Y @4.185%and VIX @ 14.44.

Global Fixed Income Markets Weekly

Overview: DM central banks showed further progress towards starting or continuing to reduce current monetary policy restriction this week given the