海外研报

The Macro Blog - Yen -A better Bank of Japan timing?

Last week's intraday price action in the USD/JPY suggests that the Bank of Japan may have intervened in the FX market onceagain to counteract yen weakness. While it is too early to determine the ultimate impact, the current market conditions

Endorses Vice President Harris; Democrats’ Odds of Winning the White House Edge Up Slightly

BOTTOM LINE: President Joe Biden exited the 2024 presidential race today (July21) and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris’ prediction market-implied

Global Hedge Fund Industry Monthly Update

Green, with a dash of red: Most HF strategies generated positive returns for June.1 Quant Equity was the best performing strategy at 2.6%, followed by Discretionary Macro at 0.8%, then Multi-Strategy at 0.8%.

Yen has room to rally further if CTAs are stopped out

Could CTAs provide the next push lower for USDJPY?In the moments after Thursday’s US CPI print was released, USDJPY declined more than 2% on suspected FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Heading into this

Americas Energy: Oil: Majors & Refiners: Refreshing Select Estimates (VLO, MEG.TO)

We update forecasts for MEG.TO and VLO to reflect recent commodity prices forCanada oil and refining indicator margins for Valero. Our price target is unchanged for

ChinaPulse: Q2’s 4.7%yoy growth shows the need for government to step up policy support

growth rate in the same period implied a -0.7%yoy GDP deflator for Q2. The growth deceleration was largely due to weakened support from service industry,

Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy: Asian equity market daily update

The MXAPJ Index was flat today. Indonesia and India markets outperformed, whileThailand and Australia markets underperformed. Within MXAPJ sectors, Materialsand Real Estate led while Cons Disc and Health Care lagged. MSCI Japan rose 0.5%today.

MACRO TRENDS CHARTBOOOK

With nominal growth in the major global economies not only slowing down to below 20y average (4.9% yoyin Q1-24 or -0.3z) but also with a more compressed distribution than in the pre-Covid period, monetary

New Monetary Framework: more hawkish than you think

The ECB’s new monetary framework is set to take effect on18 September, and yet nothing will really change. The only effective

USD: feeling green

The USD outlook has taken a turn for the worse of late on the back of: (1) growing market expectation that the Fed easing cycle could start as