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European Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on
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Liquid Insight G10 growth convergence and FX

Key takeaways• Q4-to-Q4 consensus GDP forecasts see US growth converging lower to G10. USD has +55% corr to US-World growth diff since 1974.
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2H keeps winning after a positive 1H

SPX is stronger in 2H after a positive 1HThe S&P 500 (SPX) rallied 14.48% in the first half (1H) of 2024, which is the 16th best 1H return for all years going back to 1928. When the SPX rallies over the first six months
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Global Fixed Income Markets Weekly

• Summary performance statistics for trades closed in 2022-2024• Covering Europe, UK, Scandinavia, Japan and Australia/New Zealand trades
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Asia Open - Mind the unwind, from USDJPY to US stocks

Consensus trades took a hit Wednesday, as seen by the sell-off in USDJPY (-1.3%) and Nasdaq (-2.5%). A combination of
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China: O&A on the third plenum

WVhy is the third plenum getting so muchmnarKetatentlolThe Chinese economy is facing myriad headwinds. Some are cyclical, some are deep-seated structural problemswhich can only be addressed by structural reforms.
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USA | Equity Strategy

We updated our Manager Holdings for Long Only investors, and it hadimplications for a number of Hedge Fund portfolios. We updated Uber Crowded,
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F3Q24 preview: Apple Intelligence and the iPhone replacement cycle

We expect AAPL to deliver an EPS beat in F3Q24E with $85.1 bnof revenue (+4% yoy) and EPS of $1.36 (v. FactSet consensus$1.33).
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Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy: Asian equity market daily update

The MXAPJ Index dropped 0.4% today. Indonesia and Philippines marketsoutperformed, while Taiwan and Korea markets underperformed. Within MXAPJsectors, Cons Stap and Energy led while Info Tech and Industrials lagged. MSCI
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Ocean Rates Rise But What’s Driving? Impacts Possible for transports and Broader Supply Chain

Bottom line: Ocean rates have increased 3.5x and 4.5x per container on theeast coast and west coast, respectively, since the Red Sea disruption began in
海外研报